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Coach: Asia delivered against expectations
As discussed yesterday, we believed both the following charts could offer some prescience for US stocks exposed (notably Nike, Tiffany and Coach): Japan Retail Index at 5.5 year high. Asian Retail...
View ArticleAnother marginal buyer of Japanese stocks = ISAs
With thanks again to John Seagrim at CLSA for highlighting this interesting fact, showing us once again how intertwined Abenomics is with FED policy, notably the impact rising collateral values (i.e....
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Abenomics in action
This remains the most relevant market proxy of Abenomics in action. It is implied rates of inflation in 6 years time. It has just made multi-year highs and implies inflation on 1.69%. It is important...
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Japanese consumption and why this chart matters
The Japanese have the strongest household balance sheets in the world. Again according to Seagrim, net household financial wealth in Japan totals Y1,193tn (or $11.7tn), equivalent to $250,000 net per...
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Japan: further evidence of the Wealth effects
As discussed, the quid pro quo of Kurodisation will be Abenomics, namely increased wage gains and inflation/consumption growth. In evidence, we note Japanese Household spending has enjoyed the biggest...
View ArticleLuxury: ITAD data, Japan becoming a tail wind?
Abe’s campaign to revive Japan has triggered a surge in luxury spending prompting manufacturers and retailers to review their growth strategies for the world’s number two market, according to a survey...
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Japanese consumption
In the most over-capitalised market in the world, a growing propensity to spend today, not tomorrow is a bullish development for any company with exposure. As a proxy for such we highlight the...
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Japan easy wins: inflation
Inflation is a powerful opiate which creates a propensity to ‘spend today, not tomorrow’. Any attempt to increase it either directly or indirectly should be watched closely, like the rumours they are...
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Japan: Healing takes time…
We have discussed the geo-political aspects of Abenomics before. Abe, himself a patrician nationalist, has specifically mentioned the defense industry as a target for strengthening. In fact defense...
View ArticleChina Wealth/Luxury
The total number of billionaires in China rose 25% to a total of 315 individuals. Property reclaimed its spot as the number one source of income in the past year for the mainland’s wealthy. Hurun...
View ArticleLook East (cont): consumption and wealth
Wealth among Asia millionaires may top North America’s as soon as next year (Asia-Pacific Wealth report). Asians with at least $1 million in investable assets are expected to see their riches climb to...
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Look East (cont)
This is the Asian Retail Index, which has made 13 year highs. Qingdao Haier +10% (KKR recently purchases stake), Li Ning, Adidas comp, +6% (having doubled since June). Buffett’s clean-tech play, BYD,...
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Watches vs. Jewellery: Men vs. Women (cont)
Further to our recent note on Swatch & Tiffany & Co, and in reference to the gender bias in luxury, we note Chow Tai Fook Jewellery rose 9.5% in Asia, whereas the watch proxy continues to...
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Japan retail index has now made back all it lost, and is back to its highs
The thing about raising inflation expectations is it increases the propensity to spend today, not tomorrow. Relevant insofar the Japanese are one of the biggest savers of cash on the planet, if not...
View ArticleJapan: stay long Abenomics and Nationalism
Prime Minister Abe’s Liberal Democrats and their New Komeito coalition partner won 76 of the 121 contested seats in elections this weekend to take control of the upper house of Japan’s Parliament and...
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Abenomics (cont): Inflation is an opiate for consumption
Especially in a country that has experienced structural deflation for two decades, Japan (where the value of money grew over time). Inflation increases the propensity to spend today, not tomorrow, an...
View ArticleTiffany: Luxury and the gender bias
This has probably been observed by most of you already, but it’s just occurred to us that luxury goods have a clear gender bias. Sure this is a generalisation but Men prefer cognac and watches, women...
View ArticleRetail: stick to secular growth and pricing power
We believe an underlying theme of outperformers in the consumer space will continue to prove out. The theme involves a congruence of category secular growth, high quality brands and best in class...
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Footlocker: secular growth and pricing
We believe FL results tomorrow will further amplify our underlying theme of outperformers in the consumer space, already seen from HD and TIF. The theme involves consumer names driving top line...
View ArticleLifestyle basket (cont)
NPD data this morning showed that basketball footwear was up 21% in an overall athletic footwear market down 4% for 12 months ended April 2014 and now represents 25% of all athletic footwear. This data...
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